Most theoretic models of multiparty electoral competition make the assumption that party leaders are motivated to maximize their vote share or seat share. In plurality-rule systems this is a sensible assumption. However, in proportional representation systems, this assumption is questionable since the ability to make public policy is not strictly increasing in vote shares or seat shares. We present a theoretic model in which party leaders choose electoral declarations with an eye toward the expected policy outcome of the coalition bargaining game induced by the party declarations and the parties' beliefs about citizens' voting behavior. To test this model, we turn to data from the 1989 Dutch parliamentary election. We use Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the parties' beliefs about mass voting behavior and to average over measurement uncertainty and missing data. Due to the complexity of the parties' objective functions and the uncertainty in objective function estimates, equilibria are found numerically. Unlike previous models of multiparty electoral competition, the equilibrium results are consistent with the empirical declarations of the four major Dutch parties.
Statist. Sci.
17(4):
405-419
(November 2002).
DOI: 10.1214/ss/1049993200
ALVAREZ, R. M. and NAGLER, J. (1998). When politics and models collide: Estimating models of multiparty elections. American Journal of Political Science 42 55-96. ALVAREZ, R. M. and NAGLER, J. (1998). When politics and models collide: Estimating models of multiparty elections. American Journal of Political Science 42 55-96.
ANKER, H. and OPPENHUIS, E. V. (1993). Dutch Parliamentary election study, 1989 (computer file). Dutch Electoral Research Foundation and Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Amsterdam. ANKER, H. and OPPENHUIS, E. V. (1993). Dutch Parliamentary election study, 1989 (computer file). Dutch Electoral Research Foundation and Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Amsterdam.
COUGHLIN, P. J. (1992). Probabilistic Voting Theory. Cambridge Univ. Press. MR93j:90027COUGHLIN, P. J. (1992). Probabilistic Voting Theory. Cambridge Univ. Press. MR93j:90027
DALTON, R. J. (1985). Political parties and political representation: Party supporters and party elites in nine nations. Comparative Political Studies 18 267-299. DALTON, R. J. (1985). Political parties and political representation: Party supporters and party elites in nine nations. Comparative Political Studies 18 267-299.
DAVIS, O. and HINICH, M. (1966). A mathematical model of policy formation in a democratic society. In Mathematical Applications in Political Science (J. L. Bernd, ed.) 2 175-208. Southern Methodist Univ. Press, Dallas.DAVIS, O. and HINICH, M. (1966). A mathematical model of policy formation in a democratic society. In Mathematical Applications in Political Science (J. L. Bernd, ed.) 2 175-208. Southern Methodist Univ. Press, Dallas.
FUDENBERG, D. and TIROLE, J. (1991). Game Theory. MIT Press. MR92m:90001FUDENBERG, D. and TIROLE, J. (1991). Game Theory. MIT Press. MR92m:90001
IVERSEN, T. (1994). Political leadership and representation in west European democracies: A test of three models of voting. American Journal of Political Science 38 45-74. IVERSEN, T. (1994). Political leadership and representation in west European democracies: A test of three models of voting. American Journal of Political Science 38 45-74.
KING, G., HONAKER, J., JOSEPH, A. and SCHEVE, K. (2001). Analy zing incomplete political science data: An alternative algorithm for multiple imputation. American Political Science Review 95 49-69. KING, G., HONAKER, J., JOSEPH, A. and SCHEVE, K. (2001). Analy zing incomplete political science data: An alternative algorithm for multiple imputation. American Political Science Review 95 49-69.
KIRCHHEIMER, O. (1966). The transformation of the west European party sy stems. In Political Parties and Political Development (J. LaPalombara and M. Weiner, eds.). Princeton Univ. Press. KIRCHHEIMER, O. (1966). The transformation of the west European party sy stems. In Political Parties and Political Development (J. LaPalombara and M. Weiner, eds.). Princeton Univ. Press.
LIPSET, S. M. and ROKKAN, S. (1967). Cleavage structures, party sy stems and voter alignments: an introduction. In Party Sy stems and Voter Alignments: Cross-national Perspectives (S. M. Lipset and S. Rokkan, eds.). Free Press, New York. LIPSET, S. M. and ROKKAN, S. (1967). Cleavage structures, party sy stems and voter alignments: an introduction. In Party Sy stems and Voter Alignments: Cross-national Perspectives (S. M. Lipset and S. Rokkan, eds.). Free Press, New York.
LISTHAUG, O., MACDONALD, S. E. and RABINOWITZ, G. (1990). A comparative spatial analysis of European party sy stems. Scandinavian Political Studies 13 227-254. LISTHAUG, O., MACDONALD, S. E. and RABINOWITZ, G. (1990). A comparative spatial analysis of European party sy stems. Scandinavian Political Studies 13 227-254.
LITTLE, R. J. A. and RUBIN, D. (1987). Statistical Analy sis with Missing Data. Wiley, New York. MR88i:62042LITTLE, R. J. A. and RUBIN, D. (1987). Statistical Analy sis with Missing Data. Wiley, New York. MR88i:62042
MCFADDEN, D. (1974). Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In Frontiers in Econometrics (P. Zarembka, ed.). Academic Press, New York. MCFADDEN, D. (1974). Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior. In Frontiers in Econometrics (P. Zarembka, ed.). Academic Press, New York.
NASH, J. (1950). Equilibrium points in n-person games. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 36 48-49. MR11,192c 0036.01104 10.1073/pnas.36.1.48 0027-8424%2819500115%2936%3A1%3C48%3AEPING%3E2.0.CO%3B2-BNASH, J. (1950). Equilibrium points in n-person games. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 36 48-49. MR11,192c 0036.01104 10.1073/pnas.36.1.48 0027-8424%2819500115%2936%3A1%3C48%3AEPING%3E2.0.CO%3B2-B
NELDER, J. A. and MEAD, R. (1965). A simplex method for function minimization. The Computer Journal 7 308-313. 0229.65053NELDER, J. A. and MEAD, R. (1965). A simplex method for function minimization. The Computer Journal 7 308-313. 0229.65053
QUINN, K. M., MARTIN, A. D. and WHITFORD, A. B. (1999). Voter choice in multi-party democracies: A test of competing theories and models. American Journal of Political Science 43 1231-1247. QUINN, K. M., MARTIN, A. D. and WHITFORD, A. B. (1999). Voter choice in multi-party democracies: A test of competing theories and models. American Journal of Political Science 43 1231-1247.
RABINOWITZ, G., MACDONALD, S. E. and LISTHAUG, O. (1991). New play ers in an old game: Party strategy in multiparty sy stem. Comparative Political Studies 24 147-185. RABINOWITZ, G., MACDONALD, S. E. and LISTHAUG, O. (1991). New play ers in an old game: Party strategy in multiparty sy stem. Comparative Political Studies 24 147-185.
SCHAFER, J. L. (1997). Analy sis of Incomplete Multivariate Data. Chapman and Hall, London. MR2000d:62003 0997.62510SCHAFER, J. L. (1997). Analy sis of Incomplete Multivariate Data. Chapman and Hall, London. MR2000d:62003 0997.62510
SELTEN, R. (1965). Spieltheoretische Behandlung eines Oligopolmodells mit Nachfrageträgheit. Zeitschrift für die gesamte Staatswissenschaft 121 301-324. SELTEN, R. (1965). Spieltheoretische Behandlung eines Oligopolmodells mit Nachfrageträgheit. Zeitschrift für die gesamte Staatswissenschaft 121 301-324.
SHEPSLE, K. A. and COHEN, R. N. (1990). Multiparty competition, entry, and entry deterrence in spatial models of elections. In Advances in the Spatial Theory of Voting (J. M. Enelow and M. J. Hinich, eds.) 12-45. Cambridge Univ. Press. SHEPSLE, K. A. and COHEN, R. N. (1990). Multiparty competition, entry, and entry deterrence in spatial models of elections. In Advances in the Spatial Theory of Voting (J. M. Enelow and M. J. Hinich, eds.) 12-45. Cambridge Univ. Press.