For the Gaussian sequence model, we obtain nonasymptotic minimax rates of estimation of the linear, quadratic and the $\ell_{2}$-norm functionals on classes of sparse vectors and construct optimal estimators that attain these rates. The main object of interest is the class $B_{0}(s)$ of $s$-sparse vectors $\theta=(\theta_{1},\dots,\theta_{d})$, for which we also provide completely adaptive estimators (independent of $s$ and of the noise variance $\sigma $) having logarithmically slower rates than the minimax ones. Furthermore, we obtain the minimax rates on the $\ell_{q}$-balls $B_{q}(r)=\{\theta\in\mathbb{R}^{d}:\|\theta\|_{q}\le r\}$ where $0<q\le2$, and $\|\theta\|_{q}=(\sum_{i=1}^{d}|\theta_{i}|^{q})^{1/q}$. This analysis shows that there are, in general, three zones in the rates of convergence that we call the sparse zone, the dense zone and the degenerate zone, while a fourth zone appears for estimation of the quadratic functional. We show that, as opposed to estimation of $\theta$, the correct logarithmic terms in the optimal rates for the sparse zone scale as $\log(d/s^{2})$ and not as $\log(d/s)$. For the class $B_{0}(s)$, the rates of estimation of the linear functional and of the $\ell_{2}$-norm have a simple elbow at $s=\sqrt{d}$ (boundary between the sparse and the dense zones) and exhibit similar performances, whereas the estimation of the quadratic functional $Q(\theta)$ reveals more complex effects: the minimax risk on $B_{0}(s)$ is infinite and the sparseness assumption needs to be combined with a bound on the $\ell_{2}$-norm. Finally, we apply our results on estimation of the $\ell_{2}$-norm to the problem of testing against sparse alternatives. In particular, we obtain a nonasymptotic analog of the Ingster–Donoho–Jin theory revealing some effects that were not captured by the previous asymptotic analysis.

We study the problem of learning sparse structure changes between two Markov networks $P$ and $Q$. Rather than fitting two Markov networks separately to two sets of data and figuring out their differences, a recent work proposed to learn changes directly via estimating the ratio between two Markov network models. In this paper, we give sufficient conditions for successful change detection with respect to the sample size $n_{p},n_{q}$, the dimension of data $m$ and the number of changed edges $d$. When using an unbounded density ratio model, we prove that the true sparse changes can be consistently identified for $n_{p}=\Omega(d^{2}\log\frac{m^{2}+m}{2})$ and $n_{q}=\Omega({n_{p}^{2}})$, with an exponentially decaying upper-bound on learning error. Such sample complexity can be improved to $\min(n_{p},n_{q})=\Omega(d^{2}\log\frac{m^{2}+m}{2})$ when the boundedness of the density ratio model is assumed. Our theoretical guarantee can be applied to a wide range of discrete/continuous Markov networks.

Kernel ridge regression (KRR) is a standard method for performing nonparametric regression over reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Given $n$ samples, the time and space complexity of computing the KRR estimate scale as $\mathcal{O}(n^{3})$ and $\mathcal{O}(n^{2})$, respectively, and so is prohibitive in many cases. We propose approximations of KRR based on $m$-dimensional randomized sketches of the kernel matrix, and study how small the projection dimension $m$ can be chosen while still preserving minimax optimality of the approximate KRR estimate. For various classes of randomized sketches, including those based on Gaussian and randomized Hadamard matrices, we prove that it suffices to choose the sketch dimension $m$ proportional to the statistical dimension (modulo logarithmic factors). Thus, we obtain fast and minimax optimal approximations to the KRR estimate for nonparametric regression. In doing so, we prove a novel lower bound on the minimax risk of kernel regression in terms of the localized Rademacher complexity.

We consider the problem of testing uniformity on high-dimensional unit spheres. We are primarily interested in nonnull issues. We show that rotationally symmetric alternatives lead to two Local Asymptotic Normality (LAN) structures. The first one is for fixed modal location $\mathbf{{\theta}}$ and allows to derive locally asymptotically most powerful tests under specified $\mathbf{{\theta}}$. The second one, that addresses the Fisher–von Mises–Langevin (FvML) case, relates to the unspecified-$\mathbf{{\theta}}$ problem and shows that the high-dimensional Rayleigh test is locally asymptotically most powerful invariant. Under mild assumptions, we derive the asymptotic nonnull distribution of this test, which allows to extend away from the FvML case the asymptotic powers obtained there from Le Cam’s third lemma. Throughout, we allow the dimension $p$ to go to infinity in an arbitrary way as a function of the sample size $n$. Some of our results also strengthen the local optimality properties of the Rayleigh test in low dimensions. We perform a Monte Carlo study to illustrate our asymptotic results. Finally, we treat an application related to testing for sphericity in high dimensions.

We propose a general theory and the estimation procedures for nonlinear sufficient dimension reduction where both the predictor and the response may be random functions. The relation between the response and predictor can be arbitrary and the sets of observed time points can vary from subject to subject. The functional and nonlinear nature of the problem leads to construction of two functional spaces: the first representing the functional data, assumed to be a Hilbert space, and the second characterizing nonlinearity, assumed to be a reproducing kernel Hilbert space. A particularly attractive feature of our construction is that the two spaces are nested, in the sense that the kernel for the second space is determined by the inner product of the first. We propose two estimators for this general dimension reduction problem, and establish the consistency and convergence rate for one of them. These asymptotic results are flexible enough to accommodate both fully and partially observed functional data. We investigate the performances of our estimators by simulations, and applied them to data sets about speech recognition and handwritten symbols.

We consider here a large-scale social network with a continuous response observed for each node at equally spaced time points. The responses from different nodes constitute an ultra-high dimensional vector, whose time series dynamic is to be investigated. In addition, the network structure is also taken into consideration, for which we propose a network vector autoregressive (NAR) model. The NAR model assumes each node’s response at a given time point as a linear combination of (a) its previous value, (b) the average of its connected neighbors, (c) a set of node-specific covariates and (d) an independent noise. The corresponding coefficients are referred to as the momentum effect, the network effect and the nodal effect, respectively. Conditions for strict stationarity of the NAR models are obtained. In order to estimate the NAR model, an ordinary least squares type estimator is developed, and its asymptotic properties are investigated. We further illustrate the usefulness of the NAR model through a number of interesting potential applications. Simulation studies and an empirical example are presented.

In the mildly ill-posed inverse signal-in-white-noise model, we construct confidence sets as credible balls with respect to the empirical Bayes posterior resulting from a certain two-level hierarchical prior. The quality of the posterior is characterized by the contraction rate which we allow to be local, that is, depending on the parameter. The issue of optimality of the constructed confidence sets is addressed via a trade-off between its “size” (the local radial rate) and its coverage probability. We introduce excessive bias restriction (EBR), more general than self-similarity and polished tail condition recently studied in the literature. Under EBR, we establish the confidence optimality of our credible set with some local (oracle) radial rate. We also derive the oracle estimation inequality and the oracle posterior contraction rate. The obtained local results are more powerful than global: adaptive minimax results for a number of smoothness scales follow as consequence, in particular, the ones considered by Szabó et al. [Ann. Statist. 43 (2015) 1391–1428].

We discuss properties of distributions that are multivariate totally positive of order two ($\mathrm{MTP}_{2}$) related to conditional independence. In particular, we show that any independence model generated by an $\mathrm{MTP}_{2}$ distribution is a compositional semi-graphoid which is upward-stable and singleton-transitive. In addition, we prove that any $\mathrm{MTP}_{2}$ distribution satisfying an appropriate support condition is faithful to its concentration graph. Finally, we analyze factorization properties of $\mathrm{MTP}_{2}$ distributions and discuss ways of constructing $\mathrm{MTP}_{2}$ distributions; in particular, we give conditions on the log-linear parameters of a discrete distribution which ensure $\mathrm{MTP}_{2}$ and characterize conditional Gaussian distributions which satisfy $\mathrm{MTP}_{2}$.

In regression analysis with repeated measurements, such as longitudinal data and panel data, structured covariance matrices characterized by a small number of parameters have been widely used and play an important role in parameter estimation and statistical inference. To assess the adequacy of a specified covariance structure, one often adopts the classical likelihood-ratio test when the dimension of the repeated measurements ($p$) is smaller than the sample size ($n$). However, this assessment becomes quite challenging when $p$ is bigger than $n$, since the classical likelihood-ratio test is no longer applicable. This paper proposes an adjusted goodness-of-fit test to examine a broad range of covariance structures under the scenario of “large $p$, small $n$.” Analytical examples are presented to illustrate the effectiveness of the adjustment. In addition, large sample properties of the proposed test are established. Moreover, simulation studies and a real data example are provided to demonstrate the finite sample performance and the practical utility of the test.

Weak signal identification and inference are very important in the area of penalized model selection, yet they are underdeveloped and not well studied. Existing inference procedures for penalized estimators are mainly focused on strong signals. In this paper, we propose an identification procedure for weak signals in finite samples, and provide a transition phase in-between noise and strong signal strengths. We also introduce a new two-step inferential method to construct better confidence intervals for the identified weak signals. Our theory development assumes that variables are orthogonally designed. Both theory and numerical studies indicate that the proposed method leads to better confidence coverage for weak signals, compared with those using asymptotic inference. In addition, the proposed method outperforms the perturbation and bootstrap resampling approaches. We illustrate our method for HIV antiretroviral drug susceptibility data to identify genetic mutations associated with HIV drug resistance.

In quantitative finance, we often fit a parametric semimartingale model to asset prices. To ensure our model is correct, we must then perform goodness-of-fit tests. In this paper, we give a new goodness-of-fit test for volatility-like processes, which is easily applied to a variety of semimartingale models. In each case, we reduce the problem to the detection of a semimartingale observed under noise. In this setting, we then describe a wavelet-thresholding test, which obtains adaptive and near-optimal detection rates.

In this paper, we propose a test for deciding whether the jump activity index of a discretely observed Itô semimartingale of pure-jump type (i.e., one without a diffusion) varies over a fixed interval of time. The asymptotic setting is based on observations within a fixed time interval with mesh of the observation grid shrinking to zero. The test is derived for semimartingales whose “spot” jump compensator around zero is like that of a stable process, but importantly the stability index can vary over the time interval. The test is based on forming a sequence of local estimators of the jump activity over blocks of shrinking time span and contrasting their variability around a global activity estimator based on the whole data set. The local and global jump activity estimates are constructed from the real part of the empirical characteristic function of the increments of the process scaled by local power variations. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic under the null hypothesis of constant jump activity and show that the test has asymptotic power of one against fixed alternatives of processes with time-varying jump activity.

In this paper, we consider a new structural model for in-sample density forecasting. In-sample density forecasting is to estimate a structured density on a region where data are observed and then reuse the estimated structured density on some region where data are not observed. Our structural assumption is that the density is a product of one-dimensional functions with one function sitting on the scale of a transformed space of observations. The transformation involves another unknown one-dimensional function, so that our model is formulated via a known smooth function of three underlying unknown one-dimensional functions. We present an innovative way of estimating the one-dimensional functions and show that all the estimators of the three components achieve the optimal one-dimensional rate of convergence. We illustrate how one can use our approach by analyzing a real dataset, and also verify the tractable finite sample performance of the method via a simulation study.

We derive the asymptotic distributions of the spiked eigenvalues and eigenvectors under a generalized and unified asymptotic regime, which takes into account the magnitude of spiked eigenvalues, sample size and dimensionality. This regime allows high dimensionality and diverging eigenvalues and provides new insights into the roles that the leading eigenvalues, sample size and dimensionality play in principal component analysis. Our results are a natural extension of those in [Statist. Sinica 17 (2007) 1617–1642] to a more general setting and solve the rates of convergence problems in [Statist. Sinica 26 (2016) 1747–1770]. They also reveal the biases of estimating leading eigenvalues and eigenvectors by using principal component analysis, and lead to a new covariance estimator for the approximate factor model, called Shrinkage Principal Orthogonal complEment Thresholding (S-POET), that corrects the biases. Our results are successfully applied to outstanding problems in estimation of risks for large portfolios and false discovery proportions for dependent test statistics and are illustrated by simulation studies.