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December, 1992 Indeterminate Probabilities on Finite Sets
Robert F. Nau
Ann. Statist. 20(4): 1737-1767 (December, 1992). DOI: 10.1214/aos/1176348888


This paper presents a quasi-Bayesian model of subjective uncertainty in which beliefs which are represented by lower and upper probabilities qualified by numerical confidence weights. The representation is derived from a system of axioms of binary preferences which differs from standard axiom systems insofar as completeness is not assumed and transitivity is weakened. Confidence-weighted probabilities may be elicited through the acceptance of bets with limited stakes, a generalization of the operational method of de Finetti. The model is applicable to the reconciliation of inconsistent probability judgments and to the sensitivity analysis of Bayesian decision models.


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Robert F. Nau. "Indeterminate Probabilities on Finite Sets." Ann. Statist. 20 (4) 1737 - 1767, December, 1992.


Published: December, 1992
First available in Project Euclid: 12 April 2007

zbMATH: 0782.62006
MathSciNet: MR1193311
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/aos/1176348888

Primary: 62A15
Secondary: 04A72, 90A05

Rights: Copyright © 1992 Institute of Mathematical Statistics


Vol.20 • No. 4 • December, 1992
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