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September 2015 A Bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game
P. Richard Hahn, Indranil Goswami, Carl F. Mela
Ann. Appl. Stat. 9(3): 1459-1483 (September 2015). DOI: 10.1214/15-AOAS830

Abstract

The $p$-beauty contest is a multi-player number guessing game that is widely used to study strategic behavior. Using new data from a specially-designed web experiment, we examine the evidence in favor of a popular class of behavioral economic models called $k$-step thinking models. After fitting a custom Bayesian spline model to the experimental data, we estimate that the proportion of players who could be using a $k$-step thinking strategy is approximately 25%.

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P. Richard Hahn. Indranil Goswami. Carl F. Mela. "A Bayesian hierarchical model for inferring player strategy types in a number guessing game." Ann. Appl. Stat. 9 (3) 1459 - 1483, September 2015. https://doi.org/10.1214/15-AOAS830

Information

Received: 1 September 2014; Revised: 1 April 2015; Published: September 2015
First available in Project Euclid: 2 November 2015

zbMATH: 06525994
MathSciNet: MR3418731
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/15-AOAS830

Rights: Copyright © 2015 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

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Vol.9 • No. 3 • September 2015
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