Open Access
Translator Disclaimer
December 2010 Modeling the dynamics of biomarkers during primary HIV infection taking into account the uncertainty of infection date
J. Drylewicz, J. Guedj, D. Commenges, R. Thiébaut
Ann. Appl. Stat. 4(4): 1847-1870 (December 2010). DOI: 10.1214/10-AOAS364

Abstract

During primary HIV infection, the kinetics of plasma virus concentrations and CD4+ cell counts is very complex. Parametric and nonparametric models have been suggested for fitting repeated measurements of these markers. Alternatively, mechanistic approaches based on ordinary differential equations have also been proposed. These latter models are constructed according to biological knowledge and take into account the complex nonlinear interactions between viruses and cells. However, estimating the parameters of these models is difficult. A main difficulty in the context of primary HIV infection is that the date of infection is generally unknown. For some patients, the date of last negative HIV test is available in addition to the date of first positive HIV test (seroconverters). In this paper we propose a likelihood-based method for estimating the parameters of dynamical models using a population approach and taking into account the uncertainty of the infection date. We applied this method to a sample of 761 HIV-infected patients from the Concerted Action on SeroConversion to AIDS and Death in Europe (CASCADE).

Citation

Download Citation

J. Drylewicz. J. Guedj. D. Commenges. R. Thiébaut. "Modeling the dynamics of biomarkers during primary HIV infection taking into account the uncertainty of infection date." Ann. Appl. Stat. 4 (4) 1847 - 1870, December 2010. https://doi.org/10.1214/10-AOAS364

Information

Published: December 2010
First available in Project Euclid: 4 January 2011

zbMATH: 1220.62133
MathSciNet: MR2829938
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/10-AOAS364

Keywords: Dynamical model , HIV dynamics , nonlinear models , ordinary differential equations , primary infection

Rights: Copyright © 2010 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

JOURNAL ARTICLE
24 PAGES


SHARE
Vol.4 • No. 4 • December 2010
Back to Top