Open Access
June 2010 Building a model for scoring 20 or more runs in a baseball game
Michael R. Huber, Rodney X. Sturdivant
Ann. Appl. Stat. 4(2): 791-804 (June 2010). DOI: 10.1214/09-AOAS301


How often can we expect a Major League Baseball team to score at least 20 runs in a single game? Considered a rare event in baseball, the outcome of scoring at least 20 runs in a game has occurred 224 times during regular season games since 1901 in the American and National Leagues. Each outcome is modeled as a Poisson process; the time of occurrence of one of these events does not affect the next future occurrence. Using various distributions, probabilities of events are generated, goodness-of-fit tests are conducted, and predictions of future events are offered. The statistical package R is employed for analysis.


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Michael R. Huber. Rodney X. Sturdivant. "Building a model for scoring 20 or more runs in a baseball game." Ann. Appl. Stat. 4 (2) 791 - 804, June 2010.


Published: June 2010
First available in Project Euclid: 3 August 2010

zbMATH: 1194.62134
MathSciNet: MR2758421
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/09-AOAS301

Keywords: exponential distribution , Goodness-of-fit test , memoryless property , Poisson process , rare baseball events

Rights: Copyright © 2010 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.4 • No. 2 • June 2010
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