Open Access
June 2014 Stability of epidemic models with waning immunity
Yukihiko Nakata, Yoichi Enatsu, Hisashi Inaba, Toshikazu Kuniya, Yoshiaki Muroya, Yasuhiro Takeuchi
Author Affiliations +
SUT J. Math. 50(2): 205-245 (June 2014). DOI: 10.55937/sut/1424972727

Abstract

SIRS type epidemiological model has a fundamental form to study the role of temporal immunity of recovered individuals in disease transmission dynamics and several variant models have been considered in the last century, but up to now dynamical aspects of the model are not fully elucidated. We here look over previous studies concerning qualitative analysis for a family of SIRS type epidemiological models. To this aim we construct a general model in a form of delay equation, a coupled system of a renewal equation and delay differential equations, structuring infected population by infection-age (time elapsed since infection). We re-examine the structure of equilibria and stability of the disease free equilibrium. We then introduce slightly improved stability conditions for an endemic equilibrium. Specifying modelling ingredients we derive two special cases where the model can be represented as a system of ordinary and delay differential equations that have appeared in the literature. For those models we have a powerful tool, namely Lyapunov function, to study global stability of the endemic equilibrium. Relating epidemic models are also discussed.

Funding Statement

YN was supported by JSPS Fellows, No.268448 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. YE was supported by JSPS Fellows, No.257819 and Grant-in-Aid for Young Scientists (B), No.26800066 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. TK was supported by Grant-in-Aid for Research Activity Startup, No. 25887011 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. YM was supported by Scientific Research (C), No.24540219 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. YT was supported by JSPS Fellows, No.26400211 of Japan Society for the Promotion of Science. During the revision this study was supported by Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST) RISTEX program for Science of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy to YN, YE, HI and YT.

Acknowledgement

YN and YE would like to thank Odo Diekmann for his comments regarding the characteristic equation (3.4) and computations of the bounded variation function. YN is grateful to Emiko Ishiwata for her encouragement for writing this paper.

Citation

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Yukihiko Nakata. Yoichi Enatsu. Hisashi Inaba. Toshikazu Kuniya. Yoshiaki Muroya. Yasuhiro Takeuchi. "Stability of epidemic models with waning immunity." SUT J. Math. 50 (2) 205 - 245, June 2014. https://doi.org/10.55937/sut/1424972727

Information

Received: 29 August 2014; Revised: 17 February 2015; Published: June 2014
First available in Project Euclid: 11 June 2022

Digital Object Identifier: 10.55937/sut/1424972727

Subjects:
Primary: 34K05 , 92D30

Keywords: age structure , characteristic equation , Delay equation , Epidemic model , Lyapunov function , nonlinear renewal equation , stability

Rights: Copyright © 2014 Tokyo University of Science

Vol.50 • No. 2 • June 2014
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