Open Access
November 2013 Assessment of Point Process Models for Earthquake Forecasting
Andrew Bray, Frederic Paik Schoenberg
Statist. Sci. 28(4): 510-520 (November 2013). DOI: 10.1214/13-STS440


Models for forecasting earthquakes are currently tested prospectively in well-organized testing centers, using data collected after the models and their parameters are completely specified. The extent to which these models agree with the data is typically assessed using a variety of numerical tests, which unfortunately have low power and may be misleading for model comparison purposes. Promising alternatives exist, especially residual methods such as super-thinning and Voronoi residuals. This article reviews some of these tests and residual methods for determining the goodness of fit of earthquake forecasting models.


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Andrew Bray. Frederic Paik Schoenberg. "Assessment of Point Process Models for Earthquake Forecasting." Statist. Sci. 28 (4) 510 - 520, November 2013.


Published: November 2013
First available in Project Euclid: 3 December 2013

zbMATH: 1331.86016
MathSciNet: MR3161585
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/13-STS440

Keywords: earthquakes , model assessment , point process , residual analysis , spatial–temporal statistics , super-thinning

Rights: Copyright © 2013 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.28 • No. 4 • November 2013
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