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2018 Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission
Anthony A. E. Losio, Steady Mushayabasa
J. Appl. Math. 2018: 1-12 (2018). DOI: 10.1155/2018/5084687


Guinea worm disease is one of the neglected tropical diseases that is on the verge of elimination. Currently the disease is endemic in four countries, namely, Ethiopia, Mali, Chad, and South Sudan. Prior studies have demonstrated that climate factors and limited access to safe drinking water have a significant impact on transmission and control of Guinea worm disease. In this paper, we present a new mathematical model to understand the transmission dynamics of Guinea worm disease in South Sudan. The model incorporates seasonal variations, educational campaigns, and spatial heterogeneity. Both qualitative and quantitative analysis of the model have been carried out. Utilizing Guinea worm disease surveillance data of South Sudan (2007-2013) we estimate the model parameters. Meanwhile, we perform an optimal control study to evaluate the implications of vector control on long-term Guinea worm infection dynamics. Our results demonstrate that vector control could play a significant role on Guinea worm disease eradication.


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Anthony A. E. Losio. Steady Mushayabasa. "Modeling the Effects of Spatial Heterogeneity and Seasonality on Guinea Worm Disease Transmission." J. Appl. Math. 2018 1 - 12, 2018.


Received: 12 February 2018; Revised: 18 May 2018; Accepted: 11 June 2018; Published: 2018
First available in Project Euclid: 19 September 2018

zbMATH: 07000934
MathSciNet: MR3827855
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1155/2018/5084687

Rights: Copyright © 2018 Hindawi


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