Open Access
August 2015 An optimal combination of risk-return and naive hedging
Wan-Yi Chiu
Braz. J. Probab. Stat. 29(3): 656-676 (August 2015). DOI: 10.1214/14-BJPS238


Taking an approach contrary to the mean–variance portfolio, recent studies have appealed to an older wisdom, “the naive rule provides the best solution,” to improve out-of-sample performance in portfolio selection. Naive diversification, which invests equally across risky assets, is such an example of this simple rule. Previous studies also show that a portfolio combining naive diversification with the mean–variance strategy based on minimizing expected quadratic utility losses may show strong out-of-sample performance. Using the mean squared error, this paper derives an optimal combination of nonstochastic allocation and the mean–variance portfolio. We find that this design is equivalent to the combination of the naive rule and mean–variance strategy based on minimizing the expected utility losses. As an application of this finding, we propose a regression-based combination of maximal risk-return hedging and naive hedging. Our illustration also shows out-of-sample performance of a combined hedging that is superior to that of other methods.


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Wan-Yi Chiu. "An optimal combination of risk-return and naive hedging." Braz. J. Probab. Stat. 29 (3) 656 - 676, August 2015.


Received: 1 June 2013; Accepted: 1 February 2014; Published: August 2015
First available in Project Euclid: 11 June 2015

zbMATH: 1320.91133
MathSciNet: MR3355752
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/14-BJPS238

Keywords: combined forecasts , naive hedging , naive rule , Optimal hedging , risk-return hedging

Rights: Copyright © 2015 Brazilian Statistical Association

Vol.29 • No. 3 • August 2015
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