Open Access
September 2018 Specification of Informative Prior Distributions for Multinomial Models Using Vine Copulas
Kevin James Wilson
Bayesian Anal. 13(3): 749-766 (September 2018). DOI: 10.1214/17-BA1068


We consider the specification of an informative prior distribution for the probabilities in a multinomial model. We utilise vine copulas: flexible multivariate distributions built using bivariate copulas stacked in a tree structure. We take advantage of a specific vine structure, called a D-vine, to separate the specification of the multivariate prior distribution into that of marginal distributions for the probabilities and parameter values for the bivariate copulas in the vine. We provide guidance on each of the choices to be made in the prior specification and each of the questions to ask the expert to specify the model parameters within the context of an engineering application. We then give full details of the approach for the general problem.


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Kevin James Wilson. "Specification of Informative Prior Distributions for Multinomial Models Using Vine Copulas." Bayesian Anal. 13 (3) 749 - 766, September 2018.


Published: September 2018
First available in Project Euclid: 9 October 2017

zbMATH: 06989966
MathSciNet: MR3807865
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/17-BA1068

Keywords: elicitation , Multinomial , prior specification , Subjective Bayes , vines

Vol.13 • No. 3 • September 2018
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