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May, 1979 Linear Estimation of the Probability of Discovering a New Species
Norman Starr
Ann. Statist. 7(3): 644-652 (May, 1979). DOI: 10.1214/aos/1176344684


A population consisting of an unknown number of distinct species is searched by selecting one member at a time. No a priori information is available concerning the probability that an object selected from this population will represent a particular species. Based on the information available after an $n$-stage search it is desired to predict the conditional probability that the next selection will represent a species not represented in the $n$-stage sample. Properties of a class of predictors obtained by extending the search an additional $m$ stages beyond the initial search are exhibited. These predictors have expectation equal to the unconditional probability of discovering a new species at stage $n + 1$, but may be strongly negatively correlated with the conditional probability.


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Norman Starr. "Linear Estimation of the Probability of Discovering a New Species." Ann. Statist. 7 (3) 644 - 652, May, 1979.


Published: May, 1979
First available in Project Euclid: 12 April 2007

zbMATH: 0405.62025
MathSciNet: MR527498
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/aos/1176344684

Primary: 62F10

Keywords: 2A99 , Linear unbiased estimation , prediction , search probabilities , species , Vandermonde determinant

Rights: Copyright © 1979 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.7 • No. 3 • May, 1979
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