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September, 1986 Bayes Rules for a Clinical-Trials Model with Dichotomous Responses
Gordon Simons
Ann. Statist. 14(3): 954-970 (September, 1986). DOI: 10.1214/aos/1176350044


The risk in a trial to compare two medical treatments is borne by the patients who receive the inferior treatment during the experimental phase and by those remaining after the experiment who will all receive the inferior treatment if the results are misleading. The Bayes rule indicates, for the observed progression of successes and failures, when it is optimal to stop this experimental phase. This stopping rule can be described exactly, or nearly so, for symmetric two-point priots. Less precise descriptions are possible for other types of priors. An admissible stopping rule is described which is best possible, among symmetric Bayes rules, in that it minimizes the probability of choosing the inferior treatment no matter what the values are for the probabilities of success.


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Gordon Simons. "Bayes Rules for a Clinical-Trials Model with Dichotomous Responses." Ann. Statist. 14 (3) 954 - 970, September, 1986.


Published: September, 1986
First available in Project Euclid: 12 April 2007

zbMATH: 0602.62068
MathSciNet: MR856800
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/aos/1176350044

Primary: 60G40
Secondary: 62C10, 62C15, 62L05

Rights: Copyright © 1986 Institute of Mathematical Statistics


Vol.14 • No. 3 • September, 1986
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