Open Access
December, 1985 Calibration-Based Empirical Probability
A. P. Dawid
Ann. Statist. 13(4): 1251-1274 (December, 1985). DOI: 10.1214/aos/1176349736


Probability forecasts for a sequence of uncertain events may be compared with the outcomes of those events by means of a natural criterion of empirical validity, calibration. It is shown that any two sequences of forecasts which both meet this criterion must be in asymptotic agreement. These agreed values can then be considered as correct objective probability forecasts for the particular sequence of outcome results obtained. However, the objective forecasts vary with the extent of the information taken into account when they are formulated. We thus obtain a general theory of empirical probability, relative to an information base. This theory does not require that such probabilities be interpreted in terms of repeated trials of the same event. Some implications of this theory are discussed.


Download Citation

A. P. Dawid. "Calibration-Based Empirical Probability." Ann. Statist. 13 (4) 1251 - 1274, December, 1985.


Published: December, 1985
First available in Project Euclid: 12 April 2007

zbMATH: 0587.60002
MathSciNet: MR811493
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/aos/1176349736

Primary: 60A05
Secondary: 03D10

Keywords: Calibration , computability , empirical probability , forecasting system , inductive inference , information base , prognostic system

Rights: Copyright © 1985 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.13 • No. 4 • December, 1985
Back to Top