Towards a Frequentist Theory of Upper and Lower Probability

Abstract

We present elements of a frequentist theory of statistics for concepts of upper and lower (interval-valued) probability (IVP), defined on finite event algebras. We consider IID models for unlinked repetitions of experiments described by IVP and suggest several generalizations of standard notions of independence, asymptotic certainty and estimability. Instability of relative freqencies is favoured under our IID models. Moreover, generalizations of Bernoulli's Theorem give some justification for the estimation of an underlying IVP mechanism from fluctuations of relative frequencies. Our results indicate that an objectivist, frequency- or propensity-oriented, view of probability does not necessitate an additive probability concept, and that IVP models can represent a type of indeterminacy not captured by additive probability.