Abstract
We consider a discrete time hidden Markov model where the signal is a stationary Markov chain. When conditioned on the observations, the signal is a Markov chain in a random environment under the conditional measure. It is shown that this conditional signal is weakly ergodic when the signal is ergodic and the observations are nondegenerate. This permits a delicate exchange of the intersection and supremum of σ-fields, which is key for the stability of the nonlinear filter and partially resolves a long-standing gap in the proof of a result of Kunita [J. Multivariate Anal. 1 (1971) 365–393]. A similar result is obtained also in the continuous time setting. The proofs are based on an ergodic theorem for Markov chains in random environments in a general state space.
Citation
Ramon van Handel. "The stability of conditional Markov processes and Markov chains in random environments." Ann. Probab. 37 (5) 1876 - 1925, September 2009. https://doi.org/10.1214/08-AOP448
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