Open Access
December 2015 Modeling competition between two pharmaceutical drugs using innovation diffusion models
Renato Guseo, Cinzia Mortarino
Ann. Appl. Stat. 9(4): 2073-2089 (December 2015). DOI: 10.1214/15-AOAS868


The study of competition among brands in a common category is an interesting strategic issue for involved firms. Sales monitoring and prediction of competitors’ performance represent relevant tools for management. In the pharmaceutical market, the diffusion of product knowledge plays a special role, different from the role it plays in other competing fields. This latent feature naturally affects the evolution of drugs’ performances in terms of the number of packages sold. In this paper, we propose an innovation diffusion model that takes the spread of knowledge into account. We are motivated by the need of modeling competition of two antidiabetic drugs in the Italian market.


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Renato Guseo. Cinzia Mortarino. "Modeling competition between two pharmaceutical drugs using innovation diffusion models." Ann. Appl. Stat. 9 (4) 2073 - 2089, December 2015.


Received: 1 March 2015; Revised: 1 July 2015; Published: December 2015
First available in Project Euclid: 28 January 2016

zbMATH: 06560822
MathSciNet: MR3456366
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/15-AOAS868

Keywords: communication network , competition , dynamic market potential , innovation diffusion , Nonlinear regression

Rights: Copyright © 2015 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.9 • No. 4 • December 2015
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