Open Access
September 2015 A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat
Jukka Ranta, Roland Lindqvist, Ingrid Hansson, Pirkko Tuominen, Maarten Nauta
Ann. Appl. Stat. 9(3): 1415-1432 (September 2015). DOI: 10.1214/15-AOAS845


Shifting from traditional hazard-based food safety management toward risk-based management requires statistical methods for evaluating intermediate targets in food production, such as microbiological criteria (MC), in terms of their effects on human risk of illness. A fully risk-based evaluation of MC involves several uncertainties that are related to both the underlying Quantitative Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA) model and the production-specific sample data on the prevalence and concentrations of microbes in production batches. We used Bayesian modeling for statistical inference and evidence synthesis of two sample data sets. Thus, parameter uncertainty was represented by a joint posterior distribution, which we then used to predict the risk and to evaluate the criteria for acceptance of production batches. We also applied the Bayesian model to compare alternative criteria, accounting for the statistical uncertainty of parameters, conditional on the data sets. Comparison of the posterior mean relative risk, $E(\mathit{RR}|\mathrm{data})=E(P(\mathrm{illness}|\mathrm{criterion\ is\ met})/P(\mathrm{illness})|\mathrm{data})$, and relative posterior risk, $\mathit{RPR}=P(\mathrm{illness}|\mathrm{data,\ criterion\ is\ met})/P(\mathrm{illness}|\mathrm{data})$, showed very similar results, but computing is more efficient for RPR. Based on the sample data, together with the QMRA model, one could achieve a relative risk of 0.4 by insisting that the default criterion be fulfilled for acceptance of each batch.


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Jukka Ranta. Roland Lindqvist. Ingrid Hansson. Pirkko Tuominen. Maarten Nauta. "A Bayesian approach to the evaluation of risk-based microbiological criteria for Campylobacter in broiler meat." Ann. Appl. Stat. 9 (3) 1415 - 1432, September 2015.


Received: 1 March 2014; Revised: 1 May 2015; Published: September 2015
First available in Project Euclid: 2 November 2015

zbMATH: 06525992
MathSciNet: MR3418729
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/15-AOAS845

Keywords: 2D Monte Carlo , Bayesian modeling , Campylobacter , evidence synthesis , food safety , hierarchical models , OpenBUGS , quantitative microbiological risk assessment , uncertainty

Rights: Copyright © 2015 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.9 • No. 3 • September 2015
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