Open Access
December 2012 Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period
Andrew W. Baggaley, Richard J. Boys, Andrew Golightly, Graeme R. Sarson, Anvar Shukurov
Ann. Appl. Stat. 6(4): 1352-1376 (December 2012). DOI: 10.1214/12-AOAS579


We consider parameter estimation for the spread of the Neolithic incipient farming across Europe using radiocarbon dates. We model the arrival time of farming at radiocarbon-dated, early Neolithic sites by a numerical solution to an advancing wavefront. We allow for (technical) uncertainty in the radiocarbon data, lack-of-fit of the deterministic model and use a Gaussian process to smooth spatial deviations from the model. Inference for the parameters in the wavefront model is complicated by the computational cost required to produce a single numerical solution. We therefore employ Gaussian process emulators for the arrival time of the advancing wavefront at each radiocarbon-dated site. We validate our model using predictive simulations.


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Andrew W. Baggaley. Richard J. Boys. Andrew Golightly. Graeme R. Sarson. Anvar Shukurov. "Inference for population dynamics in the Neolithic period." Ann. Appl. Stat. 6 (4) 1352 - 1376, December 2012.


Published: December 2012
First available in Project Euclid: 27 December 2012

zbMATH: 1257.62117
MathSciNet: MR3058667
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/12-AOAS579

Keywords: Bayesian inference , Gaussian process emulation , Markov chain Monte Carlo , Population dynamics , the Neolithic

Rights: Copyright © 2012 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

Vol.6 • No. 4 • December 2012
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