Abstract
Women’s educational attainment and contraceptive prevalence are two mechanisms identified as having an accelerating effect on fertility decline and that can be directly impacted by policy. Quantifying the potential accelerating effect of education and family planning policies on fertility decline in a probabilistic way is of interest to policymakers, particularly in high-fertility countries. We propose a conditional Bayesian hierarchical model for projecting fertility, given education and family planning policy interventions. To illustrate the effect policy changes could have on future fertility, we create probabilistic projections of fertility that condition on scenarios such as achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs) for universal secondary education and universal access to family planning by 2030.
Funding Statement
This work was supported by NICHD grant R01 HD070936.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to thank Leontine Alkema, Vladimíra Kantorová, Peiran Liu, Ema Perković, Hana Ševčíková, Nathan Welch, and Mark Wheldon for their helpful discussion and methodological support. We also thank the referees, Associate Editor, and Editor for their helpful comments.
Citation
Daphne H. Liu. Adrian E. Raftery. "Bayesian projections of total fertility rate conditional on the United Nations sustainable development goals." Ann. Appl. Stat. 18 (1) 375 - 403, March 2024. https://doi.org/10.1214/23-AOAS1793
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