Abstract
Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a complex neurological disorder impairing multiple domains such as cognition and daily functions. To better understand the disease and its progression, many AD research studies collect multiple longitudinal outcomes that are strongly predictive of the onset of AD dementia. We propose a joint model based on a multivariate functional mixed model framework (referred to as MFMM-JM) that simultaneously models the multiple longitudinal outcomes and the time to dementia onset. We develop six functional forms to fully investigate the complex association between longitudinal outcomes and dementia onset. Moreover, we use the Bayesian methods for statistical inference and develop a dynamic prediction framework that provides accurate personalized predictions of disease progressions based on new subject-specific data. We apply the proposed MFMM-JM to two large ongoing AD studies, the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center (NACC), and identify the functional forms with the best predictive performance. Our method is also validated by extensive simulation studies with five settings.
Funding Statement
The research of Sheng Luo was supported by National Institute of Aging (grant numbers: R01AG064803, P30AG072958, P30AG028716).
The research of Luo Xiao was supported by National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke (grant numbers: R01NS126449 and R01NS112303).
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge the Longleaf Cluster in University of North Carolina for high-performance computation resources. Data used in preparation of this article were obtained from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database (adni.loni.usc.edu). As such, the investigators within the ADNI contributed to the design and implementation of ADNI and/or provided data but did not participate in analysis or writing of this report. A complete listing of ADNI investigators can be found at http://adni.loni.usc.edu/wp-content/uploads/how_to_apply/ADNI_Acknowledgement_List.pdf.
Citation
Haotian Zou. Donglin Zeng. Luo Xiao. Sheng Luo. "Bayesian inference and dynamic prediction for multivariate longitudinal and survival data." Ann. Appl. Stat. 17 (3) 2574 - 2595, September 2023. https://doi.org/10.1214/23-AOAS1733
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