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March 2020 A hierarchical dependent Dirichlet process prior for modelling bird migration patterns in the UK
Alex Diana, Eleni Matechou, Jim Griffin, Alison Johnston
Ann. Appl. Stat. 14(1): 473-493 (March 2020). DOI: 10.1214/19-AOAS1315


Environmental changes in recent years have been linked to phenological shifts which in turn are linked to the survival of species. The work in this paper is motivated by capture-recapture data on blackcaps collected by the British Trust for Ornithology as part of the Constant Effort Sites monitoring scheme. Blackcaps overwinter abroad and migrate to the UK annually for breeding purposes. We propose a novel Bayesian nonparametric approach for expressing the bivariate density of individual arrival and departure times at different sites across a number of years as a mixture model. The new model combines the ideas of the hierarchical and the dependent Dirichlet process, allowing the estimation of site-specific weights and year-specific mixture locations, which are modelled as functions of environmental covariates using a multivariate extension of the Gaussian process. The proposed modelling framework is extremely general and can be used in any context where multivariate density estimation is performed jointly across different groups and in the presence of a continuous covariate.


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Alex Diana. Eleni Matechou. Jim Griffin. Alison Johnston. "A hierarchical dependent Dirichlet process prior for modelling bird migration patterns in the UK." Ann. Appl. Stat. 14 (1) 473 - 493, March 2020.


Received: 1 February 2019; Revised: 1 November 2019; Published: March 2020
First available in Project Euclid: 16 April 2020

zbMATH: 07200180
MathSciNet: MR4085102
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/19-AOAS1315

Keywords: capture recapture , Gaussian process , Hierarchical Dirichlet process

Rights: Copyright © 2020 Institute of Mathematical Statistics


Vol.14 • No. 1 • March 2020
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