Estimating the number of casualties in the American Indian war: A Bayesian analysis using the power law distribution

Colin S. Gillespie

doi:10.1214/17-AOAS1082

December 2017 Estimating the number of casualties in the American Indian war: A Bayesian analysis using the power law distribution

Colin S. Gillespie

Ann. Appl. Stat. 11(4): 2357-2374 (December 2017). DOI: 10.1214/17-AOAS1082

Abstract

The American Indian War lasted over one hundred years, and is a major event in the history of North America. As expected, since the war commenced in late eighteenth century, casualty records surrounding this conflict contain numerous sources of error, such as rounding and counting. Additionally, while major battles such as the Battle of the Little Bighorn were recorded, many smaller skirmishes were completely omitted from the records. Over the last few decades, it has been observed that the number of casualties in major conflicts follows a power law distribution. This paper places this observation within the Bayesian paradigm, enabling modelling of different error sources, allowing inferences to be made about the overall casualty numbers in the American Indian War.

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Colin S. Gillespie "Estimating the number of casualties in the American Indian war: A Bayesian analysis using the power law distribution," The Annals of Applied Statistics 11(4), 2357-2374, (December 2017). https://doi.org/10.1214/17-AOAS1082

Received: 1 September 2016; Published: December 2017

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