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June 2007 A resampling-based test to detect person-to-person transmission of infectious disease
Yang Yang, Ira M. Longini Jr., M. Elizabeth Halloran
Ann. Appl. Stat. 1(1): 211-228 (June 2007). DOI: 10.1214/07-AOAS105


Early detection of person-to-person transmission of emerging infectious diseases such as avian influenza is crucial for containing pandemics. We developed a simple permutation test and its refined version for this purpose. A simulation study shows that the refined permutation test is as powerful as or outcompetes the conventional test built on asymptotic theory, especially when the sample size is small. In addition, our resampling methods can be applied to a broad range of problems where an asymptotic test is not available or fails. We also found that decent statistical power could be attained with just a small number of cases, if the disease is moderately transmissible between humans.


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Yang Yang. Ira M. Longini Jr.. M. Elizabeth Halloran. "A resampling-based test to detect person-to-person transmission of infectious disease." Ann. Appl. Stat. 1 (1) 211 - 228, June 2007.


Published: June 2007
First available in Project Euclid: 29 June 2007

zbMATH: 1129.62110
MathSciNet: MR2393848
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/07-AOAS105

Keywords: hypothesis test , infectious disease , likelihood ratio , MLE , permutation , Resampling , transmission

Rights: Copyright © 2007 Institute of Mathematical Statistics


Vol.1 • No. 1 • June 2007
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