Statistical Science

Modeling and Inference for Infectious Disease Dynamics: A Likelihood-Based Approach

Carles Bretó

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Likelihood-based statistical inference has been considered in most scientific fields involving stochastic modeling. This includes infectious disease dynamics, where scientific understanding can help capture biological processes in so-called mechanistic models and their likelihood functions. However, when the likelihood of such mechanistic models lacks a closed-form expression, computational burdens are substantial. In this context, algorithmic advances have facilitated likelihood maximization, promoting the study of novel data-motivated mechanistic models over the last decade. Reviewing these models is the focus of this paper. In particular, we highlight statistical aspects of these models like overdispersion, which is key in the interface between nonlinear infectious disease modeling and data analysis. We also point out potential directions for further model exploration.

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Statist. Sci., Volume 33, Number 1 (2018), 57-69.

First available in Project Euclid: 2 February 2018

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Maximum likelihood iterated filtering particle filter compartment model Lévy-driven stochastic differential equation continuous-time Markov chain environmental stochasticity


Bretó, Carles. Modeling and Inference for Infectious Disease Dynamics: A Likelihood-Based Approach. Statist. Sci. 33 (2018), no. 1, 57--69. doi:10.1214/17-STS636.

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Supplemental materials

  • Supplement to “Modeling and Inference for Infectious Disease Dynamics: A Likelihood-Based Approach”. An illustration of how to apply IF2 for an infectious disease model.
  • Supplement to “Modeling and Inference for Infectious Disease Dynamics: A Likelihood-Based Approach”. Source code of supplement.