Statistical Science

Analysis of the 2004 Venezuela Referendum: The Official Results Versus the Petition Signatures

Gustavo Delfino and Guillermo Salas

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Abstract

On August 15th, 2004, Venezuelans had the opportunity to vote in a Presidential Recall Referendum to decide whether or not President Hugo Chávez should be removed from office. The process was largely computerized using a touch-screen system. In general the ballots were not manually counted. The significance of the high linear correlation (0.99) between the number of requesting signatures for the recall petition and the number of opposition votes in computerized centers is analyzed. The same-day audit was found to be not only ineffective but a source of suspicion. Official results were compared with the 1998 presidential election and other electoral events and distortions were found.

Article information

Source
Statist. Sci. Volume 26, Number 4 (2011), 479-501.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 28 February 2012

Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1330437931

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/08-STS263

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR2951384

Keywords
Referendum election voting machines touch screen ballot correlation uncertainty audit

Citation

Delfino, Gustavo; Salas, Guillermo. Analysis of the 2004 Venezuela Referendum: The Official Results Versus the Petition Signatures. Statist. Sci. 26 (2011), no. 4, 479--501. doi:10.1214/08-STS263. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1330437931


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