Analysis of the 2004 Venezuela Referendum: The Official Results Versus the Petition Signatures

Gustavo Delfino; Guillermo Salas

doi:10.1214/08-STS263

Statistical Science

Statist. Sci.
Volume 26, Number 4 (2011), 479-501.

Analysis of the 2004 Venezuela Referendum: The Official Results Versus the Petition Signatures

Gustavo Delfino and Guillermo Salas

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Abstract

On August 15th, 2004, Venezuelans had the opportunity to vote in a Presidential Recall Referendum to decide whether or not President Hugo Chávez should be removed from office. The process was largely computerized using a touch-screen system. In general the ballots were not manually counted. The significance of the high linear correlation (0.99) between the number of requesting signatures for the recall petition and the number of opposition votes in computerized centers is analyzed. The same-day audit was found to be not only ineffective but a source of suspicion. Official results were compared with the 1998 presidential election and other electoral events and distortions were found.

Article information

Source
Statist. Sci., Volume 26, Number 4 (2011), 479-501.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 28 February 2012

Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1330437931

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/08-STS263

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR2951384

Keywords
Referendum election voting machines touch screen ballot correlation uncertainty audit

Citation

Delfino, Gustavo; Salas, Guillermo. Analysis of the 2004 Venezuela Referendum: The Official Results Versus the Petition Signatures. Statist. Sci. 26 (2011), no. 4, 479--501. doi:10.1214/08-STS263. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1330437931

References

[1] The Carter Center and The OAS (May 23 of 2003). Agreement of the forum for negotiation and agreement in Venezuela. Available at http://web.archive.org/web/20060826224121/http://www.cartercenter.org/doc1338.htm and http://www.oas.org/OASpage/eng/Venezuela/Acuerdo052303.htm.
[2] The Carter Center and The OAS (November 16 of 2004). Report on an analysis of the representativeness of the second audit sample, and the correlation between petition signers and the yes vote in the Aug. 15, 2004 presidential recall referendum in Venezuela. Available at http://www.cartercenter.org/documents/1834.pdf.
[3] The Carter Center and The OAS (26 of August 2004). Audit of the results of the presidential recall referendum in Venezuela. Available at http://www.cartercenter.org/documents/1820.pdf and http://www.oas.org/documents/Venezuela/Referendo-OEA-CCarter.pdf.
[4] The Carter Center (February 25 of 2005). Observing the Venezuela presidential recall referendum: Comprehensive report. Available at http://www.cartercenter.org/documents/2020.pdf.
[5] Consejo Nacional Electoral (August 13 of 2004). Infraestructura electoral referendo revocatorio presidencial 15 de Agosto 2004. Available at http://www.cne.gov.ve/estadisticas/infraestructura2004_02.pdf.

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Analysis of the 2004 Venezuela Referendum: The Official Results Versus the Petition Signatures

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