Abstract and Applied Analysis

A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach

Juan-Carlos Cortés, Francisco Sánchez, Francisco-José Santonja, and Rafael-Jacinto Villanueva

Full-text: Access denied (no subscription detected)

We're sorry, but we are unable to provide you with the full text of this article because we are not able to identify you as a subscriber. If you have a personal subscription to this journal, then please login. If you are already logged in, then you may need to update your profile to register your subscription. Read more about accessing full-text

Abstract

The bomb attacks in Madrid three days before the general elections of March 14, 2004, and their possible influence on the victory of PSOE (Spanish Workers Socialist Party), defeating PP (Popular Party), have been a matter of study from several points of view (i.e., sociological, political, or statistical). In this paper, we present a dynamic model based on a system of differential equations such that it, using data from Spanish CIS (National Center of Sociological Research), describes the evolution of voting intention of the Spanish people over time. Using this model, we conclude that the probability is very low that the PSOE would have won had the attack not happened. Moreover, after the attack, the PSOE increased an average of 5.6% in voting on March 14 and an average of 11.2% of the Spanish people changed their vote between March 11 and March 14. These figures are in accordance with other studies.

Article information

Source
Abstr. Appl. Anal., Volume 2015, Special Issue (2015), Article ID 387839, 8 pages.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 17 August 2015

Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aaa/1439816312

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1155/2015/387839

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR3384347

Zentralblatt MATH identifier
06929082

Citation

Cortés, Juan-Carlos; Sánchez, Francisco; Santonja, Francisco-José; Villanueva, Rafael-Jacinto. A Probabilistic Analysis to Quantify the Effect of March 11, 2004, Attacks in Madrid on the March 14 Elections in Spain: A Dynamic Modelling Approach. Abstr. Appl. Anal. 2015, Special Issue (2015), Article ID 387839, 8 pages. doi:10.1155/2015/387839. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aaa/1439816312


Export citation

References

  • V. A. Bali, “Terror and elections: lessons from Spain,” Electoral Studies, vol. 26, no. 3, pp. 669–687, 2007.
  • J. M. Colomer, “The general election in Spain, March 2004,” Electoral Studies, vol. 24, no. 1, pp. 149–156, 2005.
  • J. R. M. Gibert, I. L. Peñas, and M. T. Loriente, Eds., General Elections 2004, 2007.
  • W. G. Gramacho, “El 14-M sin el shock del 11-M: un analisis longitudinal,” in Elecciones Generales 2004, J. R. M. Gibert, I. L. Peñas, and M. T. Loriente, Eds., pp. 205–224, 2007.
  • J. R. Montero and I. Lago, “Del 11-M al 14-M: terrorismo, gestion del gobierno y rendicion de cuentas,” in Elecciones Generales 2004, J. R. M. Gibert, I. L. Peñas, and M. T. Loriente, Eds., pp. 169–204, 2007.
  • Centro de Investigaciones Sociologicas (CIS), (Center of Sociological Research), Study No. 2559, 2004, http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/-Archivos/Marginales/2540_2559/2559/Ft2559.pdf.
  • A. Przeworski and G. A. D. Soares, “Theories in search of a curve: a contextual interpretation of left vote,” The American Political Science Review, vol. 65, no. 1, pp. 51–68, 1971.
  • N. B. Tuma and M. T. Hannan, Social Dynamics: Models and Methods, Academic Press, New York, NY, USA, 1984.
  • K. Kadera, The Power-Conict Story: A Dynamic Model of Interstate Rivalry, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, Mich, USA, 2001.
  • C. Brown, “Politics and the environment: nonlinear instabilities dominate,” The American Political Science Review, vol. 88, no. 2, pp. 292–303, 1994.
  • C. Brown, Differential Equations: A Modeling Approach, vol. 150 of Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences, Sage Publications, Los Angeles, Calif, USA, 2007.
  • Centro de Investigaciones Sociologicas (CIS) (Center of Sociological Research), http://www.cis.es/cis/opencms/ES/index.html.
  • Results of the March 14th, 2004 elections in Spain, Ministry of Inner Affairs, http://elecciones.mir.es/eleccanteriores/gen200403/pdf/result_elecc_congr_sen_2004.pdf.
  • M. Peco, F.-J. Santonja, A.-C. Tarazona, R.-J. Villanueva, and J. Villanueva-Oller, “The effect of the Spanish Law of Political Parties (LPP) on the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA: a dynamic modelling approach,” Mathematical and Computer Modelling, vol. 57, no. 7-8, pp. 1679–1685, 2013.
  • B. Barreiro, “14-M: Elecciones a la sombra del terrorismo,” Claves de Razón Práctica, vol. 141, pp. 14–22, 2004.
  • J. R. Montero, “Elecciones y sistemas de partidos,” in La Politica, M. J. de Parga and F. Vallespin, Eds., pp. 581–616, 2008.
  • J.-C. Cortes, F.-J. Santonja, A.-C. Tarazona, R.-J. Villanueva, and J. Villanueva-Oller, “A probabilistic estimation and prediction technique for dynamic continuous social science models: the evolution of the attitude of the Basque Country population towards ETA as a case studyčommentComment on ref. [9?]: Please update the information of this reference, if possible.,” http://arxiv.org/abs/1404.0649.
  • M. H. DeGroot, Probability and Statistics, Addison-Wesley, New York, NY, USA, 1986.
  • J. A. Nelder and R. Mead, “A simplex method for function minimization,” The Computer Journal, vol. 7, no. 4, pp. 308–313, 1964.
  • G. Casella and R. L. Berger, Statistical Inference, Duxbury Advances Series, Brooks/Cole, Florence, Ky, USA, 2nd edition, 2002. \endinput