## Abstract and Applied Analysis

### A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China

#### Abstract

To investigate the variability of HFMD in each county of Wenzhou, a spatial-temporal ARMA model is presented, and a general Bayesian framework is given for parameter estimation. The proposed model has two advantages: (i) allowing time series to be correlated, thus it can describe the series both spatially and temporally; (ii) implementing forecast easily. Based on the HFMD data in Wenzhou, we find that HFMD had positive spatial autocorrelation and the incidence seasonal peak was between May and July. In the county-level analysis, we find that after first-order difference the spatial-temporal ARMA $(0,0){\times}{(1,0)}_{12}$ model provides an adequate fit to the data.

#### Article information

Source
Abstr. Appl. Anal., Volume 2014 (2014), Article ID 238724, 9 pages.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 2 October 2014

https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aaa/1412273214

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1155/2014/238724

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR3178857

Zentralblatt MATH identifier
07021975

#### Citation

Li, Jie; Fu, Yanjun; Xu, Ancha; Zhou, Zumu; Wang, Weiming. A Spatial-Temporal ARMA Model of the Incidence of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Wenzhou, China. Abstr. Appl. Anal. 2014 (2014), Article ID 238724, 9 pages. doi:10.1155/2014/238724. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.aaa/1412273214

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