This paper aims to provide practitioners of causal mediation analysis with a better understanding of estimation options. We take as inputs two familiar strategies (weighting and model-based prediction) and a simple way of combining them (weighted models), and show how a range of estimators can be generated, with different modeling requirements and robustness properties. The primary goal is to help build intuitive appreciation for robust estimation that is conducive to sound practice. We do this by visualizing the target estimand and the estimation strategies. A second goal is to provide a “menu” of estimators that practitioners can choose from for the estimation of marginal natural (in)direct effects. The estimators generated from this exercise include some that coincide or are similar to existing estimators and others that have not previously appeared in the literature. We note several different ways to estimate the weights for cross-world weighting based on three expressions of the weighting function, including one that is novel; and show how to check the resulting covariate and mediator balance. We use a random continuous weights bootstrap to obtain confidence intervals, and also derive general asymptotic variance formulas for the estimators. The estimators are illustrated using data from an adolescent alcohol use prevention study. R-code is provided.

Many real-world networks are theorized to have core-periphery structure consisting of a densely-connected core and a loosely-connected periphery. While this phenomenon has been extensively studied in a range of scientific disciplines, it has not received sufficient attention in the statistics community. In this expository article, our goal is to raise awareness about this topic and encourage statisticians to address the many open inference problems in this area. To this end, we first summarize the current research landscape by reviewing the metrics and models that have been used for quantitative studies on core-periphery structure. Next, we formulate and explore various inferential problems in this context, such as estimation, hypothesis testing, and Bayesian inference, and discuss related computational techniques. We also outline the multidisciplinary scientific impact of core-periphery structure in a number of real-world networks. Throughout the article, we provide our own interpretation of the literature from a statistical perspective, with the goal of prioritizing open problems where contribution from the statistics community will be most effective and important.

This work reviews the literature on spline local basis methods for non-parametric density estimation. Particular attention is paid to B-spline density estimators which have experienced recent advances in both theory and methodology. These estimators occupy a very interesting space in statistics, which lies aptly at the cross-section of numerous statistical frameworks. New insights, experiments, and analyses are presented to cast the various estimation concepts in a unified context, while parallels and contrasts are drawn to the more familiar contexts of kernel density estimation. Unlike kernel density estimation, the study of local basis estimation is not yet fully mature, and this work also aims to highlight the gaps in existing literature which merit further investigation.

We review white noise tests in the context of functional time series, and compare many of them using a custom developed R package wwntests. The tests are categorized based on whether they are conducted in the time domain or spectral domain, and whether they are valid for i.i.d. or general uncorrelated noise. We also review and extend several residual-based goodness-of-fit tests of popular models used in functional data analysis. Through numerous simulation experiments and a data application, we demonstrate the use of these tests, and are able to provide practical guidance on their implementation, benefits, and drawbacks.

Nested sampling (NS) computes parameter posterior distributions and makes Bayesian model comparison computationally feasible. Its strengths are the unsupervised navigation of complex, potentially multi-modal posteriors until a well-defined termination point. A systematic literature review of nested sampling algorithms and variants is presented. We focus on complete algorithms, including solutions to likelihood-restricted prior sampling, parallelisation, termination and diagnostics. The relation between number of live points, dimensionality and computational cost is studied for two complete algorithms. A new formulation of NS is presented, which casts the parameter space exploration as a search on a tree data structure. Previously published ways of obtaining robust error estimates and dynamic variations of the number of live points are presented as special cases of this formulation. A new online diagnostic test is presented based on previous insertion rank order work. The survey of nested sampling methods concludes with outlooks for future research.

Probabilistic (Bayesian) modeling has experienced a surge of applications in almost all quantitative sciences and industrial areas. This development is driven by a combination of several factors, including better probabilistic estimation algorithms, flexible software, increased computing power, and a growing awareness of the benefits of probabilistic learning. However, a principled Bayesian model building workflow is far from complete and many challenges remain. To aid future research and applications of a principled Bayesian workflow, we ask and provide answers for what we perceive as two fundamental questions of Bayesian modeling, namely (a) “What actually is a Bayesian model?” and (b) “What makes a good Bayesian model?”. As an answer to the first question, we propose the PAD model taxonomy that defines four basic kinds of Bayesian models, each representing some combination of the assumed joint distribution of all observable and unobservable variables (P), a posterior approximator (A), and training data (D). As an answer to the second question, we propose and discuss ten utility dimensions according to which we can evaluate Bayesian models holistically, namely, (1) causal consistency, (2) parameter recoverability, (3) predictive performance, (4) fairness, (5) structural faithfulness, (6) parsimony, (7) interpretability, (8) convergence, (9) estimation speed, and (10) robustness. Finally, we propose two example utility decision trees that describe hierarchies and trade-offs between utilities depending on the inferential goals that drive model building and testing.