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May 2021 Comment: On the History and Limitations of Probability Updating
Glenn Shafer
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Statist. Sci. 36(2): 191-195 (May 2021). DOI: 10.1214/21-STS765A

Abstract

Gong and Meng show that we can gain insights into classical paradoxes about conditional probability by acknowledging that apparently precise probabilities live within a larger world of imprecise probability. They also show that the notion of updating becomes problematic in this larger world. A closer look at the historical development of the notion of updating can give us further insights into its limitations.

Acknowledgments

My preparation of this note has benefited from recent conversations with John Aldrich, Bernard Bru, Roubin Gong, Xiao-Li Meng and Sandy Zabell, and from countless conversations over the years with other colleagues.

Citation

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Glenn Shafer. "Comment: On the History and Limitations of Probability Updating." Statist. Sci. 36 (2) 191 - 195, May 2021. https://doi.org/10.1214/21-STS765A

Information

Published: May 2021
First available in Project Euclid: 19 April 2021

Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/21-STS765A

Rights: Copyright © 2021 Institute of Mathematical Statistics

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Vol.36 • No. 2 • May 2021
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