Gong and Meng show that we can gain insights into classical paradoxes about conditional probability by acknowledging that apparently precise probabilities live within a larger world of imprecise probability. They also show that the notion of updating becomes problematic in this larger world. A closer look at the historical development of the notion of updating can give us further insights into its limitations.
My preparation of this note has benefited from recent conversations with John Aldrich, Bernard Bru, Roubin Gong, Xiao-Li Meng and Sandy Zabell, and from countless conversations over the years with other colleagues.
"Comment: On the History and Limitations of Probability Updating." Statist. Sci. 36 (2) 191 - 195, May 2021. https://doi.org/10.1214/21-STS765A