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February 2018 Modeling and Inference for Infectious Disease Dynamics: A Likelihood-Based Approach
Carles Bretó
Statist. Sci. 33(1): 57-69 (February 2018). DOI: 10.1214/17-STS636


Likelihood-based statistical inference has been considered in most scientific fields involving stochastic modeling. This includes infectious disease dynamics, where scientific understanding can help capture biological processes in so-called mechanistic models and their likelihood functions. However, when the likelihood of such mechanistic models lacks a closed-form expression, computational burdens are substantial. In this context, algorithmic advances have facilitated likelihood maximization, promoting the study of novel data-motivated mechanistic models over the last decade. Reviewing these models is the focus of this paper. In particular, we highlight statistical aspects of these models like overdispersion, which is key in the interface between nonlinear infectious disease modeling and data analysis. We also point out potential directions for further model exploration.


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Carles Bretó. "Modeling and Inference for Infectious Disease Dynamics: A Likelihood-Based Approach." Statist. Sci. 33 (1) 57 - 69, February 2018.


Published: February 2018
First available in Project Euclid: 2 February 2018

zbMATH: 07031390
MathSciNet: MR3757504
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/17-STS636

Rights: Copyright © 2018 Institute of Mathematical Statistics


Vol.33 • No. 1 • February 2018
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