Open Access
Translator Disclaimer
November 2016 A Review and Comparison of Age–Period–Cohort Models for Cancer Incidence
Theresa R. Smith, Jon Wakefield
Statist. Sci. 31(4): 591-610 (November 2016). DOI: 10.1214/16-STS580


Age–period–cohort models have been used to examine and forecast cancer incidence and mortality for over three decades. However, the fitting and interpretation of these models requires great care because of the well-known identifiability problem that exists; given any two of age, period, and cohort, the third is determined. In this paper, we review the identifiability problem and models that have been proposed for analysis, from both frequentist and Bayesian standpoints. A number of recent analyses that use age–period–cohort models are described and critiqued before data on cancer incidence in Washington State are analyzed with various models, including a new Bayesian approach based on an identifiable parameterization.


Download Citation

Theresa R. Smith. Jon Wakefield. "A Review and Comparison of Age–Period–Cohort Models for Cancer Incidence." Statist. Sci. 31 (4) 591 - 610, November 2016.


Published: November 2016
First available in Project Euclid: 19 January 2017

zbMATH: 06946253
MathSciNet: MR3598741
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/16-STS580

Keywords: Age–period–cohort models , Identifiability , random walk priors

Rights: Copyright © 2016 Institute of Mathematical Statistics


Vol.31 • No. 4 • November 2016
Back to Top