Translator Disclaimer
august 2004 Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting
Warren C. Sanderson, Sergei Scherbov, Brian C. O'Neill, Wolfgang Lutz
Author Affiliations +
Internat. Statist. Rev. 72(2): 157-166 (august 2004).

Abstract

Since policy-makers often prefer to think in terms of alternative scenarios, the question has arisen as to whether it is possible to make conditional population forecasts in a probabilistic context. This paper shows that it is both possible and useful to make these forecasts. We do this with two different kinds of examples. The first is the probabilistic analog of deterministic scenario analysis. Conditional probabilistic scenario analysis is essential for policy-makers because it allows them to answer 'what if' type questions properly when outcomes are uncertain. The second is a new category that we call 'future jump-off date forecasts'. Future jump-off date forecasts are valuable because they show policy-makers the likelihood that crucial features of today's forecasts will also be present in forecasts made in the future.

Citation

Download Citation

Warren C. Sanderson. Sergei Scherbov. Brian C. O'Neill. Wolfgang Lutz. "Conditional Probabilistic Population Forecasting." Internat. Statist. Rev. 72 (2) 157 - 166, august 2004.

Information

Published: august 2004
First available in Project Euclid: 3 August 2004

zbMATH: 1330.62442

Rights: Copyright © 2004 International Statistical Institute

JOURNAL ARTICLE
10 PAGES

This article is only available to subscribers.
It is not available for individual sale.
+ SAVE TO MY LIBRARY

SHARE
Vol.72 • No. 2 • august 2004
Back to Top