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April 2004 Using the Lee--Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data
Nan Li, Ronald Lee, Shripad Tuljapurkar
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Internat. Statist. Rev. 72(1): 19-36 (April 2004).

Abstract

The Lee-Carter method for modeling and forecasting mortality has been shown to work quite well given long time series of data. Here we consider how it can be used when there are few observations at uneven intervals. Assuming that the underlying model is correct and that the mortality index follows a random walk with drift, we find the method can be used with sparse data. The central forecast depends mainly on the first and last observation, and so can be generated with just two observations, preferably not too close in time. With three data points, uncertainty can also be estimated, although such estimates of uncertainty are themselves highly uncertain and improve with additional observations. We apply the methods to China and South Korea, which have 3 and 20 data points, respectively, at uneven intervals.

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Nan Li. Ronald Lee. Shripad Tuljapurkar. "Using the Lee--Carter Method to Forecast Mortality for Populations with Limited Data." Internat. Statist. Rev. 72 (1) 19 - 36, April 2004.

Information

Published: April 2004
First available in Project Euclid: 15 March 2004

zbMATH: 1330.62349

Rights: Copyright © 2004 International Statistical Institute

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Vol.72 • No. 1 • April 2004
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