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April 2004 Time Series Based Errors and Empirical Errors in Fertility Forecasts in the Nordic Countries
Nico Keilman, Dinh Quang Pham
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Internat. Statist. Rev. 72(1): 5-18 (April 2004).

Abstract

We use ARCH time series models to derive model based prediction intervals for the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark up to 2050. For the short term (5-10 yrs), expected TFR-errors are compared with empirical forecast errors observed in historical population forecasts prepared by the statistical agencies in these countries since 1969. Medium-term and long-term (up to 50 years) errors are compared with error patterns based on so-called naïve forecasts, i.e. forecasts that assume that recently observed TFR-levels also apply for the future.

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Nico Keilman. Dinh Quang Pham. "Time Series Based Errors and Empirical Errors in Fertility Forecasts in the Nordic Countries." Internat. Statist. Rev. 72 (1) 5 - 18, April 2004.

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Published: April 2004
First available in Project Euclid: 15 March 2004

zbMATH: 1304.62134

Rights: Copyright © 2004 International Statistical Institute

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Vol.72 • No. 1 • April 2004
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