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April 2004 Simpler Probabilistic Population Forecasts: Making Scenarios Work
Joshua R. Goldstein
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Internat. Statist. Rev. 72(1): 93-106 (April 2004).

Abstract

The traditional high-low-medium scenario approach to quantifying uncertainty in population forecasts has been criticized as lacking probabilistic meaning and consistency. This paper shows, under certain assumptions, how appropriately calibrated scenarios can be used to approximate the uncertainty intervals on future population size and age structure obtained with fully stochastic forecasts. As many forecasting organizations already produce scenarios and because dealing with them is familiar territory, the methods presented here offer an attractive intermediate position between probabilistically inconsistent scenario analysis and fully stochastic forecasts.

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Joshua R. Goldstein. "Simpler Probabilistic Population Forecasts: Making Scenarios Work." Internat. Statist. Rev. 72 (1) 93 - 106, April 2004.

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Published: April 2004
First available in Project Euclid: 15 March 2004

zbMATH: 1330.91166

Rights: Copyright © 2004 International Statistical Institute

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Vol.72 • No. 1 • April 2004
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