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April 2004 Mortality Forecasting and Trend Shifts: an Application of the Lee--Carter Model to Swedish Mortality Data
Hans Lundström, Jan Qvist
Internat. Statist. Rev. 72(1): 37-50 (April 2004).

Abstract

In this paper we examine how the Lee-Carter model fares with Swedish data for the period 1901-2001 and for segments of this period. We have choosen to censor ages less than age 40 as those ages only are of marginal interest to the forecast. At age 40 some 98 to 99 percent of the birth cohorts are survivors. In the study we only consider the unweighted kt estimates. The Lee-Carter model provides very good fits to the data. When splitting up the base period there seems to be an interaction beween the age and time components of the model. In order to deal with the different phases of falling mortality for males and females possibly one should choose the past 25 years as a base in the model. Selecting the base period is however a judgmental issue depending on the main focus of the forecast. Is it long-term, short-term or, as in Sweden, a combination of both?

Citation

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Hans Lundström. Jan Qvist. "Mortality Forecasting and Trend Shifts: an Application of the Lee--Carter Model to Swedish Mortality Data." Internat. Statist. Rev. 72 (1) 37 - 50, April 2004.

Information

Published: April 2004
First available in Project Euclid: 15 March 2004

zbMATH: 1330.62437

Rights: Copyright © 2004 International Statistical Institute

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Vol.72 • No. 1 • April 2004
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