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April 2004 Assumptions on Fertility in Stochastic Population Forecasts
Maarten Alders, Joop de Beer
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Internat. Statist. Rev. 72(1): 65-79 (April 2004).

Abstract

In recent years Statistics Netherlands has published several stochastic population forecasts. The degree of uncertainty of the future population is assessed on the basis of assumptions about the probability distribution of future fertility, mortality and migration. The assumptions on fertility are based on an analysis of historic forecasts of the total fertility rate (TFR), on time-series models of observations of the TFR, and on expert knowledge. This latter argument-based approach refers to the TFR distinguished by birth order. In the most recent Dutch forecast the 95% forecast interval of the total fertility rate in 2050 is assumed to range from 1.2 to 2.3 children per woman.

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Maarten Alders. Joop de Beer. "Assumptions on Fertility in Stochastic Population Forecasts." Internat. Statist. Rev. 72 (1) 65 - 79, April 2004.

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Published: April 2004
First available in Project Euclid: 15 March 2004

zbMATH: 1330.62015

Rights: Copyright © 2004 International Statistical Institute

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Vol.72 • No. 1 • April 2004
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