On Bayesian credible sets, restricted parameter spaces and frequentist coverage

Abstract

For estimating a lower bounded parametric function in the framework of Marchand and Strawderman [6], we provide through a unified approach a class of Bayesian confidence intervals with credibility $1-\alpha$ and frequentist coverage probability bounded below by $\frac{1-\alpha}{1+\alpha}$. In cases where the underlying pivotal distribution is symmetric, the findings represent extensions with respect to the specification of the credible set achieved through the choice of a spending function, and include Marchand and Strawderman’s HPD procedure result. For non-symmetric cases, the determination of a such a class of Bayesian credible sets fills a gap in the literature and includes an “equal-tails” modification of the HPD procedure. Several examples are presented demonstrating wide applicability.