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February 2021 The snap, crackle and pop of solar flares explained
Wayne S. Kendal
Braz. J. Probab. Stat. 35(1): 101-118 (February 2021). DOI: 10.1214/20-BJPS497


The irregular fluctuations of solar flare emissions, as determined from terrestrial neutron monitors, remains poorly understood. These records empirically revealed a temporally-related variance to mean power law, $1/f$ noise and a non-Gaussian distribution, all features indicative of self-organized criticality, a theory of how derministic dynamical systems can spontaneously evolve to unstable states that express erratic changes. The non-Gaussian distribution found here approximated a Tweedie compound Poisson exponential dispersion model, a statistical distribution characterized by a variance to mean power law that itself can imply $1/f$ noise. Tweedie exponential dispersion models serve a primary role in statistical theory as foci for weak convergence for a wide range of random distributions, a role which supports an alternative conjecture to explain the solar flare fluctuations as being based on random processes rather than a deterministic system.


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Wayne S. Kendal. "The snap, crackle and pop of solar flares explained." Braz. J. Probab. Stat. 35 (1) 101 - 118, February 2021.


Received: 1 June 2019; Accepted: 1 November 2020; Published: February 2021
First available in Project Euclid: 6 January 2021

MathSciNet: MR4195762
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/20-BJPS497

Rights: Copyright © 2021 Brazilian Statistical Association


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Vol.35 • No. 1 • February 2021
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