Open Access
September 2023 Regularized Zero-Variance Control Variates
L. F. South, C. J. Oates, A. Mira, C. Drovandi
Author Affiliations +
Bayesian Anal. 18(3): 865-888 (September 2023). DOI: 10.1214/22-BA1328

Abstract

Zero-variance control variates (ZV-CV) are a post-processing method to reduce the variance of Monte Carlo estimators of expectations using the derivatives of the log target. Once the derivatives are available, the only additional computational effort lies in solving a linear regression problem. Significant variance reductions have been achieved with this method in low dimensional examples, but the number of covariates in the regression rapidly increases with the dimension of the target. In this paper, we present compelling empirical evidence that the use of penalized regression techniques in the selection of high-dimensional control variates provides performance gains over the classical least squares method. Another type of regularization based on using subsets of derivatives, or a priori regularization as we refer to it in this paper, is also proposed to reduce computational and storage requirements. Several examples showing the utility and limitations of regularized ZV-CV for Bayesian inference are given. The methods proposed in this paper are accessible through the R package ZVCV.

Funding Statement

LFS was supported by an Australian Research Training Program Stipend, by ACEMS and by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council grant EP/S00159X/1. CJO was supported by the Lloyd’s Register Foundation programme on data centric engineering at the Alan Turing Institute, UK. CD and CJO were supported by an Australian Research Council Discovery Project (DP200102101). AM was partially supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation grant 100018_200557.

Acknowledgments

The authors thank anonymous referees and the associate editor for helpful comments. The authors also wish to thank Nial Friel for the suggestion to reduce the variance of the SMC evidence estimator using ZV-CV and for comments on an earlier draft. LFS and CD are associated with the ARC Centre of Excellence for Mathematical & Statistical Frontiers (ACEMS). LFS would like to thank Matthew Sutton for useful discussions about penalized regression methods. Computational resources used in this work were provided by the HPC and Research Support Group, Queensland University of Technology, Brisbane, Australia and by the High End Computing facility at Lancaster University.

Citation

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L. F. South. C. J. Oates. A. Mira. C. Drovandi. "Regularized Zero-Variance Control Variates." Bayesian Anal. 18 (3) 865 - 888, September 2023. https://doi.org/10.1214/22-BA1328

Information

Published: September 2023
First available in Project Euclid: 5 September 2022

MathSciNet: MR4626360
arXiv: 1811.05073
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/22-BA1328

Subjects:
Primary: 62-08
Secondary: 62F15

Keywords: Bayesian inference , controlled thermodynamic integration – CTI , curse of dimensionality , Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation , MCMC , Monte Carlo simulations , penalized regression , sequential Monte Carlo – SMC , Stein operator , variance reduction

Vol.18 • No. 3 • September 2023
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