April 2021 Analysis of “learn-as-you-go” (LAGO) studies
Daniel Nevo, Judith J. Lok, Donna Spiegelman
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Ann. Statist. 49(2): 793-819 (April 2021). DOI: 10.1214/20-AOS1978


In Learn-As-you-GO (LAGO) adaptive studies, the intervention is a complex multicomponent package, and is adapted in stages during the study based on past outcome data. This design formalizes standard practice in public health intervention studies. An effective intervention package is sought, while minimizing intervention package cost. In LAGO study data, the interventions in later stages depend upon the outcomes in the previous stages, violating standard statistical theory. We develop an estimator for the intervention effects, and prove consistency and asymptotic normality using a novel coupling argument, ensuring the validity of the test for the hypothesis of no overall intervention effect. We develop a confidence set for the optimal intervention package and confidence bands for the success probabilities under alternative package compositions. We illustrate our methods in the BetterBirth Study, which aimed to improve maternal and neonatal outcomes among 157,689 births in Uttar Pradesh, India through a multicomponent intervention package.


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Daniel Nevo. Judith J. Lok. Donna Spiegelman. "Analysis of “learn-as-you-go” (LAGO) studies." Ann. Statist. 49 (2) 793 - 819, April 2021. https://doi.org/10.1214/20-AOS1978


Received: 1 May 2019; Revised: 1 April 2020; Published: April 2021
First available in Project Euclid: 2 April 2021

Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/20-AOS1978

Primary: 62F05 , 62F10 , 62F12 , 62J12 , 62K99 , 62L99

Keywords: Adaptive designs , coupling , dependent sample , public health

Rights: Copyright © 2021 Institute of Mathematical Statistics


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Vol.49 • No. 2 • April 2021
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