The problem of estimating an event, having positive probability content, based on a sample of $n$ observations is considered. A natural metric is shown to exist on the space of possible values for the event. This leads to the definition of optimal estimators. We derive optimal estimators for events which correspond to quantiles for the univariate exponential model. Further optimal estimators are derived for the events bounded by the ellipsoidal contours of the density function in the multivariate normal model.
"Estimating Events." Ann. Statist. 11 (4) 1218 - 1224, December, 1983. https://doi.org/10.1214/aos/1176346334