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September 2015 A Bayesian spatiotemporal model for reconstructing climate from multiple pollen records
Lasse Holmström, Liisa Ilvonen, Heikki Seppä, Siim Veski
Ann. Appl. Stat. 9(3): 1194-1225 (September 2015). DOI: 10.1214/15-AOAS832


Holocene (the last 12,000 years) temperature variation, including the transition out of the last Ice Age to a warmer climate, is reconstructed at multiple locations in southern Finland, Sweden and Estonia based on pollen fossil data from lake sediment cores. A novel Bayesian statistical approach is proposed that allows the reconstructed temperature histories to interact through shared environmental response parameters and spatial dependence. The prior distribution for past temperatures is partially based on numerical climate simulation. The features in the reconstructions are consistent with the quantitative climate reconstructions based on more commonly used reconstruction techniques. The results suggest that the novel spatio-temporal approach can provide quantitative reconstructions that are smoother, less uncertain and generally more realistic than the site-specific individual reconstructions.


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Lasse Holmström. Liisa Ilvonen. Heikki Seppä. Siim Veski. "A Bayesian spatiotemporal model for reconstructing climate from multiple pollen records." Ann. Appl. Stat. 9 (3) 1194 - 1225, September 2015.


Received: 1 May 2014; Revised: 1 May 2015; Published: September 2015
First available in Project Euclid: 2 November 2015

zbMATH: 06525983
MathSciNet: MR3418720
Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/15-AOAS832

Rights: Copyright © 2015 Institute of Mathematical Statistics


Vol.9 • No. 3 • September 2015
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