March 2024 Land-use filtering for nonstationary spatial prediction of collective efficacy in an urban environment
J. Brandon Carter, Christopher R. Browning, Bethany Boettner, Nicolo Pinchak, Catherine A. Calder
Author Affiliations +
Ann. Appl. Stat. 18(1): 794-818 (March 2024). DOI: 10.1214/23-AOAS1813


Collective efficacy—the capacity of communities to exert social control toward the realization of their shared goals—is a foundational concept in the urban sociology and neighborhood effects literature. Traditionally, empirical studies of collective efficacy use large sample surveys to estimate collective efficacy of different neighborhoods within an urban setting. Such studies have demonstrated an association between collective efficacy and local variation in community violence, educational achievement, and health. Unlike traditional collective efficacy measurement strategies, the Adolescent Health and Development in Context (AHDC) Study implemented a new approach, obtaining spatially-referenced, place-based ratings of collective efficacy from a representative sample of individuals residing in Columbus, OH. In this paper we introduce a novel nonstationary spatial model for interpolation of the AHDC collective efficacy ratings across the study area, which leverages administrative data on land use. Our constructive model specification strategy involves dimension expansion of a latent spatial process and the use of a filter defined by the land-use partition of the study region to connect the latent multivariate spatial process to the observed ordinal ratings of collective efficacy. Careful consideration is given to the issues of parameter identifiability, computational efficiency of an MCMC algorithm for model fitting, and fine-scale spatial prediction of collective efficacy.

Funding Statement

This study was supported in part by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (Christopher R. Browning; R01DA032371), the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute on Child Health and Human Development (Catherine A. Calder; R01HD088545; John Casterline, The Ohio State University Institute for Population Research, P2CHD058484; Elizabeth Gershoff, The University of Texas at Austin Population Research Center, P2CHD-042849), and the W. T. Grant Foundation.


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J. Brandon Carter. Christopher R. Browning. Bethany Boettner. Nicolo Pinchak. Catherine A. Calder. "Land-use filtering for nonstationary spatial prediction of collective efficacy in an urban environment." Ann. Appl. Stat. 18 (1) 794 - 818, March 2024.


Received: 1 June 2022; Revised: 1 July 2023; Published: March 2024
First available in Project Euclid: 31 January 2024

Digital Object Identifier: 10.1214/23-AOAS1813

Keywords: Bayesian statistics , Data augmentation , dimension expansion , nonstationarity , sociology , spatial statistics

Rights: Copyright © 2024 Institute of Mathematical Statistics


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Vol.18 • No. 1 • March 2024
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