An epidemic in a dynamic population with importation of infectives

Abstract

Consider a large uniformly mixing dynamic population, which has constant birth rate and exponentially distributed lifetimes, with mean population size $n$. A Markovian SIR (susceptible $\to$ infective $\to$ recovered) infectious disease, having importation of infectives, taking place in this population is analysed. The main situation treated is where $n\to\infty$, keeping the basic reproduction number $R_{0}$ as well as the importation rate of infectives fixed, but assuming that the quotient of the average infectious period and the average lifetime tends to 0 faster than $1/\log n$. It is shown that, as $n\to\infty$, the behaviour of the 3-dimensional process describing the evolution of the fraction of the population that are susceptible, infective and recovered, is encapsulated in a 1-dimensional regenerative process $S=\{S(t);t\ge0\}$ describing the limiting fraction of the population that are susceptible. The process $S$ grows deterministically, except at one random time point per regenerative cycle, where it jumps down by a size that is completely determined by the waiting time since the start of the regenerative cycle. Properties of the process $S$, including the jump size and stationary distributions, are determined.