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July 2021 Application of ARIMA models on Export potential Indicator
Amour Gbaguidi Amoussou, Aristide Medenou
Afr. J. Appl. Stat. 8(2): 1165-1180 (July 2021). DOI: 10.16929/ajas/2021.1165.263

Abstract

The export potential indicator is designed for countries that aim to support established exports by increasing exports to new or existing target markets, and several studies are being managed using various mathematical model to predict the export values.Here, we propose a simple econometric model that could be useful to predict the export values. We performed ARIMA model to evaluate the realized and unrealized export potentials of products. We therefore propose to carry out actions in favor of increasing the export potential.

L'indicateur du potentiel d’'exportation est conçu por les pays qui souhaitent soutenir les exportations en augmentant les exportations vers des marchés cibles nouveaux ou existants. Plusieurs études sont traitées en utilisant divers modèles mathématiques pour prédire les valeurs du commerce extérieur. Dans ce travail nous utilisons le modèle ARIMA pour prédire les valeurs du potentiel réalisé et celui non réalisé. Nous proposons donc de mener des actions en faveur de l’augmentation du potentiel d’exportation réalisé.

Citation

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Amour Gbaguidi Amoussou. Aristide Medenou. "Application of ARIMA models on Export potential Indicator." Afr. J. Appl. Stat. 8 (2) 1165 - 1180, July 2021. https://doi.org/10.16929/ajas/2021.1165.263

Information

Published: July 2021
First available in Project Euclid: 20 January 2022

Digital Object Identifier: 10.16929/ajas/2021.1165.263

Subjects:
Primary: 91B84
Secondary: 62M20 , 91B60

Keywords: ARIMA model , export potential , export value , prediction

Rights: Copyright © 2021 The Statistics and Probability African Society

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Vol.8 • No. 2 • July 2021
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