Mathematical Modeling of Hidden Intimate Partner Violence in Spain: A Quantitative and Qualitative Approach

Abstract

The fact that women are abused by their male partner is something that happens worldwide in the 21st century. In numerous cases, abuse only becomes publicly known when a fatal event occurs and is beyond any possible remedy, that is, when men murder their female partner. Since 2003, 793 (September 4, 2015) women have been assassinated by their significant other or excouple in Spain. Only 7.2% of murdered women had reported their fear and previous intimate partner violence (IPV) to the police. Even when the number of female victims is comparable to the number of victims by terrorism, the Government has not assigned an equal amount of resources to diminish the magnitude of this hidden social problem. In this paper, a mathematical epidemiological model to forecast intimate partner violence in Spain is constructed. Both psychological and physical aggressor subpopulations are predicted and simulated. The model’s robustness versus uncertain parameters is studied by a sensitivity analysis.