Comment: Illusions, Then and Now

Glenn Shafer

doi:10.1214/19-STS751

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Home > Journals > Statist. Sci. > Volume 35 > Issue 2 > Article

May 2020 Comment: Illusions, Then and Now

Glenn Shafer

Statist. Sci. 35(2): 173-174 (May 2020). DOI: 10.1214/19-STS751

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Abstract

The situation of mathematical statistics today resembles the situation of Laplacean probability in the mid-19th century. Strong claims are made about how probability theory should be used. Yet it is widely misused and increasingly not used in the analysis of data. Perhaps we need a philosophy of probability that makes more modest and realistic claims.