Statistical Science

Revisiting Francis Galton’s Forecasting Competition

Kenneth F. Wallis

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Abstract

This note reexamines the data from a weight-judging competition described in an article by Francis Galton published in 1907. Following the correction of some errors, it is shown that this forecasting competition is an interesting precursor of two more recent developments in the statistical forecasting literature. One is forecast combination, with the mean forecast here exactly coinciding with the outcome, and the second is the use of two-piece frequency and probability distributions to describe asymmetry.

Article information

Source
Statist. Sci., Volume 29, Number 3 (2014), 420-424.

Dates
First available in Project Euclid: 23 September 2014

Permanent link to this document
https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1411437521

Digital Object Identifier
doi:10.1214/14-STS468

Mathematical Reviews number (MathSciNet)
MR3264553

Zentralblatt MATH identifier
1331.62025

Keywords
Forecast competitions forecast combinations two-piece distributions skewness kurtosis the wisdom of crowds

Citation

Wallis, Kenneth F. Revisiting Francis Galton’s Forecasting Competition. Statist. Sci. 29 (2014), no. 3, 420--424. doi:10.1214/14-STS468. https://projecteuclid.org/euclid.ss/1411437521


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